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(Filed: 15/06/2006)
Only weeks after a super-jumbo A380 flew into Heathrow for the first time, the double-decker aircraft's maker is now facing big problems on delivery times, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard |
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When core
shareholders all rush for
the exits at the same time,
be prepared for trouble.
BAE
Systems, DaimlerChrysler,
and Lagardère, each
announced a disposal of
their stake in Europe's
Airbus venture last month,
muttering vaguely about
other plans. Now we know
what was on their minds.
The
electrical systems on the
A380 "fly-by-wire"
super-jumbo, the most
ambitious aircraft ever
built, fruit of $11bn of
sunk costs, are apparently a
shambles. "Hundreds" of
other problems have yet to
be resolved.
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An A380
is a crossborder
effort, fuselage
being made in
Hamburg, the
nose in France,
and wings in
Britain.
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Just nine
of the $300m double-decker
whales will be delivered
next year instead of 20 to
25, with a backlog of delays
and penalty clauses
cascading through the
decade.
At a
minimum, the blunder will
cut profits by €2bn over
four years, the company
admitted yesterday.
The verdict
on the Paris bourse was
swift and brutal. The
Franco-Geman mother company,
EADS, lost a third of its
value before lunch,
recovering slightly to close
down 26pc at €18.73.
David Buik
from Cantor Fitzgerald said:
"This is an absolute
catastrophe of the highest
order. At least some French
lawyers will be very busy
with litigation."
Sash Tusa,
a Goldman Sachs analyst,
said the debacle had stunned
investors: "This is very
damaging to both the
credibility of EADS
management, and also to
Airbus's reputation for
program management."
Emirates
Airlines, the irrepressible
Dubai-based carrier with the
biggest launch order, for 43
aircraft, will now have to
wait an extra seven months
before receiving its first
batch. The company said it
was "considering its
position" but denied it was
mulling cancelling orders.
A "not
happy" Singapore Airlines
said it was already in talks
with Airbus over
compensation. Rubbing salt
into the wound, the company
announced a $4.5bn order
yesterday for 20 Dreamliners,
the super-efficient Boeing
787 mid-haul jet made from
carbon composites.
John Leahy,
Airbus's chief operating
officer, confessed that the
cock-up would cost "hundreds
of millions" in late
delivery penalties but hoped
the storm would pass without
causing deeper damage. "The
airlines are upset, but
they're staying with the
programme," he said.
EADS's
share price has now fallen
48pc since April, shedding
some €15bn in market
capitalisation. The group
derived the lion's share of
its €2.9bn profits last year
from its 80pc stake in
Airbus.
It is a
sobering moment for Europe's
flagship industrial venture,
at the peak of its fortunes
just months ago.
"The symbol
of what Europe can achieve,"
in the words of French
president Jacques Chirac, it
now risks suffering the same
fate as the draft European
constitution, fellow child
of a hubristic French elite.
The next
shoe to drop is likely to be
the mid-haul A350, much
denigrated as a revamped
hybrid that relies on the
ageing core of the A737.
Airbus has netted 180 orders
for the aircraft, against
400 for Boeing's higher-tech
Dreamliner, but these are
not secure.
Qatar
Airways said last week that
it may scrap its $10bn order
for 60 aircraft if there are
further delays. It said: "We
won't wait forever. If
Airbus is not capable of
meeting our needs, we'll
look elsewhere."
Tim Clark,
the president of Emirates,
said the A350 is a terrific
aircraft. "Unfortunately for
Airbus, two things happened:
Boeing came up with an even
better plane and the price
of fuel went through the
roof," he said.
Airbus is
gritting its teeth and
preparing to go back to the
drawing board to design an
entirely new aircraft, with
longer range and more
capacity. Estimated cost? An
extra $5bn, and two years'
further delay.
Fitch
Ratings downgraded EADS
yesterday, citing the cracks
emerging in the two
principal pillars that will
support Airbus over the next
decade.
Banks
scrambled to lower
estimates, with downgrades
from Deutsche Bank, SG
Securities, HypoVereinsbank,
and Oddo Securities, all now
distrustful of the jostling
Franco-German, twin-headed
management.
Morgan
Stanley said there was a
risk that customers may
start to cancel existing
orders for the A380, opting
to for Boeing instead.
Airbus
currently has 159 firm
orders, but needs roughly
300 at the current euro-dollar
exchange rate to be sure of
breaking even.
Matthieu
Raimbault, an analyst at
Vile Tradition in Paris,
said Airbus is paying the
price for neglecting
bread-and-butter business to
build a glamour jet able to
carry up to 853 passengers.
"EADS made
a strategic error by opting
for a jumbo rather than a
fuel efficient model,
especially if the price of
oil increases further," he
said.
The wake
turbulence from the A380 may
be such a threat to other
aircraft on take-off and
landing that the
International Civil Aviation
Organisation is imposing a
barrier of 10 nautical
miles, twice the distance
for a Boeing 747.
The rule,
temporary at first, changes
the cost calculus for
airports such as Heathrow,
which depend on constant
traffic flow for profit
margin.
For now
Airbus is still riding the
wave of a lucrative
aerospace boom that reached
a peak last year with record
orders for 1,111 aircraft,
leaving it with a $200bn
backlog and plenty of work
until the end of the decade.
But
aerospace is fickle, ever at
risk from the ups and downs
of the global cycle, as
Boeing discovered in
its near
death experience after 9/11.
Total orders for big jets
worldwide are expected to
fall from 2,173 last year to
800 this year, and could dip
much deeper if the world's
central banks keep turning
the monetary screw to curb
inflation.
Tim Van
Beveren, a German television
producer and author of a
book on Airbus, said the
company had staked its
destiny on the wrong model
with the A380.
"It's going
to be the biggest flop since
the Concorde. Airbus always
wants to be the biggest, the
newest, and the best, but it
has this habit of
over-promising," he said.
"The A380
may have a future as a cargo
freight plane. But what
passengers want these days
is to fly point to point
rather than being herded
through big hubs," he said.
He said the
electrical system was coming
under intense scrutiny from
the certifying authorities
after a Swiss Air crash in
1998, traced to faulty
wiring.
The A380
has been struggling with
excess weight, too heavy for
the landing gear. A wing,
built at Broughton, north
Wales, snapped during a
stress test in February at a
level below the requirement
of 1.5 times maximum load,
in part because the wings
had been shaved so thin to
save weight.
Airbus has
been a great success story,
rising from derided upstart
to global leader in civil
aviation with factories
across Europe. But it is a
hard company to love.
The
eminence grise is France's
Noël Forgeard, co-chief of
EADS and confidant of
President Chirac, with
Gaulliste arrogance and
sharp elbows to match.
Mr Forgeard
waged a bare-knuckle
campaign last year to gain
to dominant control over
EADS, upsetting the delicate
Franco-German balance that
has always been the secret
of its success.
The bitter
taste left in the mouth by
that unseemly affair has not
been forgotten by the German
side.
A great
number of investors are
starting to feel the same
way.
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