The following letter was written by Dr. Tony Kern,
Lt. Col., USAF (Ret),
Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy.
It is definitely worth your time to read it.
Please pass it along to those
you know who may be interested.
RA
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Recently, I was asked to look at the September
11th event through the lens
of military history. I have joined the
cast of thousands who have written
an open letter to Americans." Please share
it if you feel so moved.
14 September, 2001
Dear friends and fellow Americans:
Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling
from last week's
attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not
reeling from surprise.
As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military
history, I have
a different perspective and I think you should hear
it. This war will be
won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats,
politicians or soldiers.
Let me briefly explain.
In spite of what the media, and even our own
government is telling us,
this act was not committed by a group of mentally
deranged fanatics. To
dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of
mistakes. This attack
was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated
adversary.
Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these
men and I deplore
their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The
many parallels that
have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor
are apropos. Not
only because it was a brilliant sneak attack
against a complacent America,
but also because we may well be pulling our new
adversaries out of caves
30 years after we think this war is over, just
like my father's generation
had to do with the formidable Japanese in the
years following WW II..
These men hate the United States with all of their
being, and we must not
underestimate the power of their moral commitment.
Napoleon, perhaps the
world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman,
said "the moral is
to the physical as three is to one." Patton
thought the Frenchman
underestimated its importance and said moral
conviction was five times
more important in battle than physical strength. Our
enemies are willing -
better said anxious - to give their lives for their
cause. How committed
are we, America? And for how long?
In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction,
the recent attack
demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals
of warfare taught
to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity,
security and
surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these
men may have been
trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect
sense to me. This was
not a random act of violence, and we can expect
the same sort of military
competence to be displayed in the battle to come. This
war will escalate,
with a good portion of it happening right here in the
good ol' U.S. of A.
These men will not go easily into the night. They
do not fear us. We must
not fear them.
In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength
as the world's only
superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the underdog
in this fight. As you
listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed
to prepare us for the
march for war, please realize that America is not
equipped or seriously
trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers
are much better
than the enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist"
organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage
rescues, airfield
seizures, or the occasional "body snatch,"
(which may come in handy). We
will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if
their early efforts are
any indication, our enemy is ready and willing
to die to the last man.
Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming.
They have already
deployed their forces in as many as 20 countries, and
are likely living
the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers
will be tasked
with a search and destroy mission on multiple foreign
landscapes, and the
public must be patient and supportive until the
strategy and tactics can
be worked out.
For the most part, our military is still in the process
of redefining
itself and presided over by men and women who grew
up with - and were
promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine,
strategy and
tactics.
This will not be linear warfare, there will
be no clear "centers of
gravity" to strike with high technology
weapons. Our vast technological
edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be
decisive. Perhaps the
perfect metaphor for the coming battle was introduced
by the terrorists
themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft. This will
be a knife fight, and it
will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens
and soldiers, not
by software or smart bombs. We must also be patient
with our military
leaders.
Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy
time behind us, our
adversaries have time on their side, and they
will use it. They plan to
fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the
battle out until the
American public loses its will to fight. This might
be difficult to believe
in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism,
but it is generally
acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long
fight. We need only
look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese
General Vo Nguyen Giap
(also a military history teacher) defeated the United
States of America
without ever winning a major tactical battle. American
soldiers who
marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans
in 1965 were reviled and
spat upon less than three years later when they
returned.
Although we hope that Usama bin Laden is no Giap,
he is certain to
understand and employ the concept. We can expect not
only large doses of
pain like the recent attacks, but also less audacious
"sand in the gears"
tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to attacks
at water supplies
and power distribution facilities. These attacks
are designed to hit us in
our "comfort zone" forcing the average
American to "pay more and play
less" and eventually eroding our resolve.
But it can only work if we allow
it to happen.
It is clear to me that the will of the American
citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity
the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which
victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient,
and self-centered. He may be right, but if so,
we must change.
The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the
most often quoted and least read military theorist
in history), says that there is a "remarkable trinity
of war" that is composed of the (1) will of the people,
(2) the political leadership of the government,
and (3) the chance and probability that
plays out on the field of battle, in that order. Every American
citizen was in the cross hairs of last Tuesday's attack,
not just those that were unfortunate enough
to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon.
The will of the American people will decide this war.
If we are to win, it
will be because we have what it takes to persevere
through a few more hits,
learn from our mistakes, improvise, and adapt. If we
can do that, we will
eventually prevail.
Everyone I've talked to in the past few days has shared
a common
frustration, saying in one form or another "I
just wish I could do
something!" You are already doing it. Just keep
faith in America, and
continue to support your President and military, and
the outcome is
certain. If we fail to do so, the outcome is
equally certain.
God Bless America
Dr. Tony Kern, Lt. Col., USAF (Ret)
Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy
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